By A. Trevor Thrall, Jane K. Cramer
This edited quantity addresses the difficulty of probability inflation in American overseas coverage and household politics. The Bush administration's competitive crusade to construct public aid for an invasion of Iraq reheated fears concerning the president's skill to control the general public, and lots of charged the management with 'threat inflation', duping the inside track media and deceptive the general public into aiding the battle below fake pretences.
Presenting the newest learn, those essays search to reply to the query of why probability inflation happens and while it is going to be winning. easily outlined, it's the attempt through elites to create situation for a possibility that is going past the scope and urgency that disinterested research may justify. extra widely, the method matters how elites view threats, the political makes use of of danger inflation, the politics of risk framing between competing elites, and the way the general public translates and perceives threats through the inside track media.
The struggle with Iraq will get precise awareness during this quantity, in addition to the 'War on Terror'. even if many think that the Bush management effectively inflated the Iraq hazard, there's not a neat consensus approximately why this used to be profitable. via either theoretical contributions and case reports, this booklet showcases the 4 significant reasons of probability inflation -- realism, family politics, psychology, and constructivism -- and makes them confront each other without delay. the result's a richer appreciation of this significant dynamic in US politics and overseas coverage, current and future.
This booklet may be of a lot pursuits to scholars folks overseas and nationwide safety coverage, foreign protection, strategic experiences and IR generally.
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Extra resources for American Foreign Policy and The Politics of Fear: Threat Inflation since 9/11
The incredible costs of fighting World War I not only contributed to the subsequent appeasement policy, but also convinced the British that if war were to come, they could not fight it as they had done before. A way out was strategic bombardment that could deter devastating German air attack on Britain Understanding beliefs and threat inflation 29 and win the war without having to suffer the horrendous losses of ground warfare. It then had to be true that an effective bomber force could be developed, and supporting beliefs were called up to meet this demand.
As I discussed above, proponents of the war had more reasons than they needed, and opponents differed on all these points. If reality testing were shaping the beliefs, then one should have found quite a few people who believed that while the war was necessary, it would be very costly, or who thought that while threat was present, opportunity was not (or vice versa), or that the war would be cheap, but was not necessary. But these positions are uncomfortable, and so it is not surprising that we do not find people taking them.
2005b) “The war over Iraq: Selling war to the American public,” Security Studies, 14: 106–39. ” (for further discussion on Smith, Bruner and White see: 1; Eagly and Chaiken 1998: 303–309; George 1958; Hammond 1996: Ch. 11; Herek 1987; Katz 1960; Sarnoff and Katz 1954; Tetlock 2002). I think their answer was essentially correct as well: People adopt opinions not only to understand the world, but also to meet the psychological and social needs to live with themselves and others. In this chapter I use this basic insight to examine some of the puzzles in what people believe generally, drawing most of my examples from the realm of international politics.