By Michael Spivak
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Additional info for A Comprehensive Introduction To Differential Geometry Volume 5, Second Edition
In this section I will highlight the more important technical factors that should guide the serious student of the markets, but before I do that, keep in mind something William Hamilton wrote many years ago: “The Dow Jones averages have a discretion not shared by all prophets. ”3 It’s the same thing with these indicators. They will often go silent for months at a time before emerging with an important message for the astute observer. Sentiment indicators do a good job of measuring the temperature of amateur and professional investors alike.
The reason is that banks borrow on the short end of the curve and lend on the long end. An inverted yield curve takes away banks’ incentive to lend and leads to a contraction in credit. This will ultimately slow business activity and usually portends a contraction or deeper recession. The role and importance of credit in a levered, finance-based economy cannot be overstated. Ours is a highly unstable and vulnerable financial system built on high debt levels at the banking, sovereign, and consumer level.
Accept and flow with the reality before you. If the trade you want is not there, don’t take something else instead. If it is, then go for it, and put your capital to work. This takes a rare kind of patience and mental discipline to carry out. If you’ve watched top predators like lions hunting, the approach is similar. They don’t run around aimlessly, needlessly wasting energy. Instead, they lie in wait until a worthwhile opportunity presents itself, and then they strike with maximum force. In trading it is necessary to operate in a similar manner, as trading is a very demanding and stressful profession, and we all need the mental break a few days away provides.